The Economic Threshold with a Stochastic Pest Population: A Real Options Approach
用实物期权方法构建了害虫种群密度随机波动时的最优施药停止模型，并应用于苹果叶面害虫防治，发现害虫密度波动性显著影响触发施药的阈值，有助于改进农药管理决策。
Abstract Using real options,this paper formulates an optimal stopping model for applying pest control measures when the density of a pest population varies randomly. A delay between successive pesticide applications is introduced to analyze the farmer's expected marginal cost of reentry. This model is applied to the control of a foliar pest of apples via a pesticide, and is solved numerically. A sensitivity analysis shows that the pest density that should trigger pesticide use can vary significantly with the pest density volatility. Incorporating pest randomness into simple decision rules may thus help better manage the chemicals applied to soils and crops.