Lost in Transit: Product Replacement Bias and Pricing to Market
研究发现美国贸易价格指数中大量产品在价格变动前就被替换，导致传统价格指数低估了汇率对价格的传递效应，修正后长期汇率传递率显著更高，贸易条件波动更大。
In the microdata underlying US trade price indexes, 40 percent of products are replaced before a single price change is observed and 70 percent are replaced after two price changes or fewer. A price index that focuses on price changes for identical items may, therefore, miss an important component of price adjustment occurring at the time of product replacements. We provide a model of this “product replacement bias” and quantify its importance using US data. Accounting for product replacement bias, long-run exchange rate “pass-through” is substantially higher than conventional estimates suggest, and the terms of trade are substantially more volatile.