Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Founding of the Federal Reserve
研究美国历史上最重要的货币制度变革：美联储成立对利率不确定性的影响，发现其显著降低了利率不确定性，1908年的《奥尔德里奇-弗里兰法案》也有类似效果。
This article examines the impact of what is undoubtedly the most important monetary regime change in U.S. history: the founding of the Federal Reserve System. We find, using a (G)ARCH model, a significant reduction in interest rate uncertainty following the founding of the Fed. Additionally, we show that the passage of the Aldrich-Vreeland Act in 1908, another significant change in policy, also led to a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. These results are robust to alternative interest rate models, as well as to incorporating the impact of other events important to financial markets in our sample.