The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
分析银行业危机与货币危机之间的关联，发现银行业问题通常先于货币危机，而货币危机又加剧银行业危机，形成恶性循环；金融自由化常是银行业危机的前兆。
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis—the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows, and accompanied by an overvalued currency.