A Predictive Model of Sequential Iteration in Engineering Design
基于设计结构矩阵，提出一个描述复杂工程项目中顺序迭代过程的模型，可计算预期工期并优化任务排序，对项目经理和设计工程师有参考价值。
This paper presents a model describing sequential iteration, one of the fundamental solution processes experienced in complex engineering design projects. The model is based upon the design structure matrix representation and assumes that each individual design activity is of deterministic duration with probabilistic repetition, where the repeat probabilities are defined by the strength of the task coupling. Using the model, we are able to compute the expected duration of the iterative solution process, and to suggest an initial ordering of the coupled design tasks to minimize the expected duration. We conclude the paper with a discussion of limitations and several extensions to the sequential iteration model.