Agricultural Comparative Advantage under International Price Uncertainty: The Case of Senegal
将不确定性引入贸易理论，通过塞内加尔的线性规划模型，发现考虑国际价格风险后，该国在花生和谷物上的比较优势不再明确，适度减少花生专业化、提高谷物自给率可能优于自由贸易。
Abstract This study draws upon recent theoretical contributions which have introduced uncertainty into trade theory to examine empirically the implications of international price uncertainty for agricultural comparative advantage in a small open economy assuming risk‐adverse policy makers. Utilizing a price endogenous, linear programming model developed for Senegal, it is shown that Senegal's comparative advantage in the production of peanuts and comparative disadvantage in the production of cereals is less clearcut when international price risk is considered. The results suggest a trade strategy of less specialization in peanuts and greater self‐sufficiency in cereals may be superior to free trade.