Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident?
发现，过去四个季度预测盈利比中位数分析师更准的分析师，后续预测反而更不准且更偏离共识，这符合归因偏差导致的过度自信。
This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful. The results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables. Our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short-lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings.