Commentary. Stuck in low GEAR? Macroeconomic policy in South Africa, 1996-98
评论南非非国大政府执政后实施的紧缩财政与货币政策(GEAR计划),指出其增长目标(1996-2000年4.2%)远未实现,原因在于国内政策而非外部因素。
Despite its ideology while in opposition, once in power the ANC government implemented an orthodox macroeconomic policy which stressed deficit reduction and a tight monetary policy, combined with trade liberalisation. The stated purpose of this package (the Growth, Employment, and Redistribution programme, or GEAR) was to increase economic growth, with a 4.2% rate programmed for 1996-2000. At mid-term of the programme, growth remained far below this target. The GEAR's lack of success cannot be explained by unfavourable external factors; rather, the disappointing performance seemed the result of fiscal contraction and excessively high interest rates.