Price Movements as Indicators of Tender Offer Success
研究1976-1981年间100%现金要约收购中目标公司股价变动对收购成败的预测能力，发现市场价格能较好反映预期最终股价，且预测概率随时间单调改善。
ABSTRACT This paper examines movements in the prices of target stocks as predictors of the ultimate success or failure of tender offers. An empirical investigation of 100% cash tender offers during the years 1976 to 1981 leads to the conclusion that, with few exceptions, market prices are well‐calibrated, i.e., the current target price during the offer period measures the expected (discounted) stock price at the conclusion date. The market's probability predictions improve monotonically over time.