Inventory Optimization in the U.S. Petroleum Industry: Empirical Analysis and Implications for Energy Emergency Policy
通过模型模拟分析美国石油行业在供应中断时的库存行为，评估战略石油储备（SPR）释放对私人库存和油价的影响，结论认为SPR在紧急情况下能有效抑制投机性囤积。
Much of the rapid increases in the price of crude oil during two of the last three supply shocks has been attributed to increased private inventory demand stimulated by the expectation of speculative profits. Government intervention in any future disruption is likely to take the form of releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Given that the SPR accounts for but a small fraction of U.S. oil inventories, the reaction of the private sector is critical in evaluating its impact. We incorporate inventory behavior in a model of the world oil market, which is then linked to a short-run macroeconometric model of the U.S. economy. Our model simulations support the view that substantial inventory accumulation accompanies a supply disruption. In the debate over whether the SPR is potentially a potent or impotent resource in an emergency, we lean toward potency. Our model suggests that public releases will not be absorbed in private stockpiles; indeed, their dampening price effects will serve, albeit slightly, to discourage speculative stock build.