Indexing, exchange rate policy and inflationary feedback effects in Latin America
运用时变估计技术研究阿根廷、巴西等六国通胀惯性,发现降低汇率与过去通胀的关联对较大经济体效果有限,而降低工资指数化虽有强效但短暂。
This paper examines inflationary adjustment processes in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay with time-varying estimation techniques to determine the relationship between inflationary inertia or feedback effects from past to current inflation and the degree of indexation of wages and exchange rates to past inflation rates. The results show that reductions in the degree of exchange rate linkage to past inflation have not been particularly helpful in larger or relatively more diversified economies (such as Argentina, Brazil, or Chile), while reductions in wage linkages to past inflation rates have had strong but short-lived effects.