Alternative indicators for predicting the probability of declining inflation: evidence from the US
使用美国数据，通过probit模型评估不同指标预测通胀下降概率的表现，发现1990年代中后期失业率和产能利用率预测效果不佳，建议扩展凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线分析以纳入劳动力市场变化、技术进步和开放度等因素。
The performance of inflation indicators for predicting the probability of inflation falling inside constant and moving targets is considered with a probit model using US data. Given the Federal Reserve System's emphasis on achieving price stability, particular attention is given to the target that future inflation will be below recent inflation. In contrast with earlier years, the unemployment and capacity utilisation rates do not perform well in forecasting the direction of inflation in the mid and late 1990s. We suggest that extending the Keynesian Phillips curve analysis to consider changes in labour market conditions, technological advance and worker skills, and openness will increase understanding of these issues.