Overconfidence, Insurance, and Paternalism
在Rothschild-Stiglitz保险市场模型中引入过度自信（低估个人风险），发现当足够多的人低估风险时，强制保险反而会损害低风险者的福利，从而削弱基于信息不对称的政府干预理由。
It is well known that when agents are fully rational, compulsory public insurance may make all agents better off in the Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) model of insurance markets. We find that when sufficiently many agents underestimate their personal risks, compulsory insurance makes low-risk agents worse off. Hence, behavioral biases may weaken some of the well-established rationales for government intervention based on asymmetric information.