The Effects of Statistical Information on Risk and Ambiguity Attitudes, and on Rational Insurance Decisions
通过大规模实地访谈（N=476），研究统计信息对公众保险购买意愿的影响，发现个人历史成本信息会加剧逆向选择，但能提升客户满意度和成本意识；同时观察到模糊寻求而非模糊厌恶，且前景理论在个体层面不成立。
This paper presents a field study into the effects of statistical information concerning risks on willingness to take insurance, with special attention being paid to the usefulness of these effects for the clients (the insured). Unlike many academic studies, we were able to use in-depth individual interviews of a large representative sample from the general public (N=476). The statistical information that had the most interesting effects, “individual own past-cost information,” unfortunately enhanced adverse selection, which we could directly verify because the real health costs of the clients were known. For a prescriptive evaluation this drawback must be weighted against some advantages: a desirable interaction with risk attitude, increased customer satisfaction, and increased cost awareness. Descriptively, ambiguity seeking was found rather than ambiguity aversion, and no risk aversion was found for loss outcomes. Both findings, obtained in a natural decision context, deviate from traditional views in risk theory but are in line with prospect theory. We confirmed prospect theory's reflection at the level of group averages but falsified it at the individual level.