PHILLIPS CURVES AND UNEMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS: A CRITIQUE AND A HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE
批判传统观点认为长期通胀与失业无关，通过新菲利普斯曲线证明摩擦增长产生长期权衡，主张用链式反应理论整体解释通胀与失业演变。
Abstract The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run implies the compartmentalization of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of the new Phillips curve, we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay between lags and growth, generates an inflation–unemployment trade‐off in the long run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, such as the chain reaction theory (CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector autoregressions.