Tax Reforms and Intertemporal Shifting of Wage Income: Evidence from Danish Monthly Payroll Records
利用丹麦所有雇员的月度工资记录，研究发现一项大幅降低边际税率的改革导致四分之一的雇员普遍进行劳动收入的跨期转移；忽略转移时应税收入弹性为0.1且随收入递增，剔除转移后弹性在各收入水平均接近零，并揭示了税收显著性、流动性约束和企业合作意愿等影响因素。
This paper uses monthly payroll records for all Danish employees to identify widespread intertemporal shifting of labor income in response to a tax reform that significantly reduced the marginal tax rates for one-fourth of all employees. When ignoring shifting, the estimate of the overall elasticity of taxable income equals 0.1, and the elasticity is increasing with earnings. When removing the shifting component, the elasticity is close to zero at all earnings levels. The evidence also indicates that tax salience, liquidity constraints and firm willingness to cooperate in shifting are important factors in explaining shifting behavior.