Technological Forecasting—An Overview
综述了过去十年技术预测方法的发展，包括仍广泛使用的传统方法、开始普及的新方法、有潜力但未广泛应用的方法，以及未达预期的方法，并举例说明。
Within the past decade, the set of techniques used by technological forecasters has expanded considerably. While the old standbys such as trend extrapolation are still in wide use, some new techniques are also beginning to see wide use. In addition, there are some new techniques which have considerable promise, but which have not yet seen wide use. Finally, there are some techniques which have not yet fulfilled their original promise. Examples of each of these categories are discussed in the paper.