THE DEBATE ABOUT THE REVIVED BRETTON‐WOODS REGIME: A SURVEY AND EXTENSION OF THE LITERATURE
综述了关于当前全球汇率安排构成复兴的布雷顿森林体系的文献，指出该体系因资产价格泡沫和全球金融危机等不稳定因素而不可持续，并通过马尔可夫转换模型发现两个时期均存在大宗商品价格泡沫。
Abstract This paper surveys the literature dealing with the thesis put forward by Dooley, Folkerts‐Landau and Garber (DFG) that the present constellation of global exchange‐rate arrangements constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods regime. DFG also argue that the revived regime will be sustainable, despite its large global imbalances. While much of the literature generated by DFG's thesis points to specific differences between the earlier regime and revived regime that render the latter unstable, we argue that an underlying similarity between the two regimes renders the revived regime unstable. Specifically, to the extent that the present system constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods system, it is vulnerable to the same set of destabilizing forces – including asset‐price bubbles and global financial crises – that marked the latter years of the earlier regime, leading to its breakdown. We extend the Markov switching model to examine the relation between global liquidity and commodity prices. We find an evidence of commodity‐price bubbles in both the latter stages of the earlier Bretton‐Woods regime and the revived regime.