Conscription and Crime: Evidence from the Argentine Draft Lottery
利用阿根廷抽签征兵制随机分配男性服役，发现强制兵役增加个人犯罪记录概率，和平时期也如此，不支持以反犯罪为目的征兵。
We estimate the causal effect of mandatory participation in military service on individuals' subsequent involvement in criminal activities. To identify this causal effect, we exploit the random assignment of young men to conscription in Argentina through a draft lottery. Using a dataset that includes draft eligibility, participation in military service, and criminal records, we find that conscription increases the likelihood of developing a criminal record. The effects are significant not only for cohorts that provided military service during wartime, but also for those that served during peacetime. Our results do not support the introduction of conscription for anti-crime purposes. JEL (H56, K42, O17)