Learning Direction Theory and the Winner's Curse
通过实验研究赢家诅咒现象，发现学习方向理论能解释出价过高导致亏损的行为，并引入脉冲平衡理论做出定量预测。
Abstract We report an experiment on a decision task by Samuelson and Bazerman (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an unknown value. A winner's curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can account for this. However, other influences on behaviour can also be identified. We introduce impulse balance theory to make quantitative predictions on the basis of learning direction theory. We also look at monotonic ladder processes. It is shown that for this kind of Markov chains the impulse balance point is connected to the mode of the stationary distribution.