混沌理论及其对社会科学研究的启示

Chaos Theory and Its Implications for Social Science Research

HUMAN RELATIONS · 1993
被引 144
人大 AFT50ABS 4

中文导读

基于混沌理论的数学原理,论证社会科学中预测和控制系统行为的目标常常无法实现,并指出该理论对个体、群体和组织等各类实体均适用,为社会科学研究提供了新的理论视角。

Abstract

Based on theoretical and mathematical principles of chaos theory, we argue that the customary social science goals of "prediction" and "control" of systems behavior are sometimes, if not usually, unobtainable. Specifically, chaos theory shows how it is possible for nearly identical entities embedded in identical environments to exhibit radically different behaviors, even when the underlying systems are extremely simple and completely deterministic. Furthermore, chaos theory arguments are general enough to apply to any type of entity, including individuals, groups, and organizations, and therefore they are relevant to a large domain of social science problems. As a result, this paper concludes with six familiar claims about the study of social phenomena for which chaos theory provides new theoretical arguments.

混沌理论社会科学方法论系统行为预测与控制