The Complexity Effects on Choice with Uncertainty – Experimental Evidence
实验发现人们不喜欢不确定性选择中的复杂性，复杂性会降低选择概率、增加决策噪音，甚至导致选到更差的选项，这与期望效用理论等预测相悖，可能造成投资组合选择低效。
We present experimental evidence suggesting that human subjects dislike complexity in choice with uncertainty. Our results suggest that the probability of choosing a given alternative decreases with the relative complexity of that alternative. Complexity increases the noise in the choice process and the chances that the (otherwise) inferior alternative will be selected. Our results contradict the predictions of (discounted) expected utility theory and intuitively appealing axioms like "stochastic dominance" and "convexity". These "complexity effects" may lead to inefficient portfolio selection. The perceived complexity of a given lottery may depend on editing procedures and be subjected to framing effects. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002