Age Variations in Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions
基于全国调查数据，分析不同年龄段的吸烟风险认知差异及其对吸烟决策的影响，发现年轻人高估肺癌风险且风险认知抑制吸烟，但年龄不影响认知利用方式。
The results of a national survey of smoking risks and smoking behavior are analyzed.Smoking risk perceptions follow the expected patterns given age differences in risk information acquired and differences in information associated with smoking status.Risk perceptions are greater as one moves to younger age cohorts, where overall lung cancer risks are substantially overestimated.These risk perceptions in turn have a negative effect on smoking decisions, where younger individuals behave no differently in terms of the manner in which they incorporate risk perceptions into their smoking decisions. IntroductionFROM the standpoint of market failure with respect to individual decisions under uncertainty, smoking behavior raises two classes of issues.First, do individuals understand the potential risks posed by their smoking decisions?Second, if they do understand these risks, do they take them into account when deciding whether they will smoke?These concerns are particularly acute in the case of younger individuals, since most smokers initiate their smoking behavior when they are relatively young.In view of the considerable attention that has been focused on the costs associated with cessation of smoking, which have been designated a problem of "addiction" by the Surgeon General,' it becomes particularly important to determine whether young cigarette smokers understand the risks and act upon these risk perceptions in a responsible manner.Evidence from other risk contexts does not inspire confidence in these decision-making capabilities.Younger drivers lead all age groups in motor vehicle fatality rates, where a major component of these accidents is attributable to teenage drunken driving.2If irresponsible risktaking behavior in this decision context is reflected in others as well, then we would expect to find evidence of inadequate risk perceptions and failure to respond to risks when examining the smoking decisions of younger individuals.An offsetting influence is that the mix of the information received by younger age groups will incorporate more adverse information with respect to the consequences of smoking.Public dissemination of risk information has been widespread, particularly over the past two decades.Moreover, the increased social controversy with respect to smoking has created heightened social awareness.One would expect that individuals whose experiences have been dominated by this more recent climate would have higher risk perceptions than those with a longer term perspective.This paper will utilize a large national survey of smoking risk perceptions and smoking behavior to investigate the role of individual age with respect to smoking.These data will enable us to analyze smoking behavior as a case study in the economics of potentially risky consumption decisions.In particular, we will examine the level of subjective risk perceptions using probability assessments that make it possible to compare subjective perceptions with actual risk levels to determine the extent and direction of any bias.In