Forest Conservation in Costa Rica when Nonuse Benefits are Uncertain but Rising
用随机动态规划研究哥斯达黎加湿润地区原始热带森林的最优保有量，发现未来非使用收益的上升趋势和国际补偿比不确定性更重要，但若无补偿，进一步砍伐可能合理。
Abstract Stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate optimal holding of primary tropical forest in humid Costa Rica when future nonuse benefits of forest conservation are uncertain and increasing. The quasi‐option value of maintaining primary forests is included as a component of investment in natural capital. Although the impact of uncertainty on conservation incentives is substantial, our results indicate that a rising trend in future benefits and compensation by the international community for beneficial spillovers are more important factors in determining optimal holdings of forest stocks. Without compensatory payments, however, further deforestation may be warranted.