The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
回顾了宏观经济预测的发展历程，指出非结构性预测持续进步，而结构性预测随理论兴衰，但新兴的动态随机一般均衡理论预示其复兴。
Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.