Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe*
研究消费者和商业信心指标能否预测四个欧洲经济体的GDP波动，发现两者均呈顺周期性，并能显著预测经济衰退。
Abstract This paper examines whether indicators of consumer and business confidence can predict movements in GDP over the business cycle for four European economies. The empirical methodology used to investigate the properties of the data comprises cross‐correlation statistics, implementing an approach developed by den Haan [ Journal of Monetary Economics (2000) , Vol. 46, pp. 3–30]. The predictive power of confidence indicators is also examined, investigating whether they can predict discrete events, namely economic downturns, and whether they can quantitatively forecast point estimates of economic activity. The results indicate that both consumer and business confidence indicators are procyclical and generally play a significant role in predicting downturns.