The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers
通过分析结构向量自回归（SVAR）中不同财政规则假设如何导致财政乘数估计差异，提出一种基于代理SVAR的新识别策略，发现增加支出比减税更能刺激产出。
Do tax cuts and spending increases stimulate output? Studies that identify fiscal shocks using structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) have reached different conclusions. In this article, we show analytically that this lack of consensus reflects different assumptions on the fiscal rules that—by relating tax and spending policies to macroeconomic conditions—determine the identification of fiscal shocks and the associated fiscal multipliers. We then propose a new identification strategy based on a proxy SVAR that uses non-fiscal instruments to directly estimate the parameters of the fiscal rules. We find that spending increases stimulate output more than tax cuts..