Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
指出MSS（2004）关于降雨减少增加非洲冲突风险的结论存在统计问题，实际是冲突与两年前的降雨水平正相关，且最新数据中冲突与降雨无关。
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t – 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.