The Significance and Insignificance of Demand Analysis in Evaluating Promotion Programs
解释为何促销对需求的估计效果常小且不显著，但对行业利润的估计效果却大且显著，并通过蒙特卡洛示例和实证分析（牛肉促销对利润的边际效应约9.84美元）说明计量建模含义。
Abstract The estimated effects of promotion on demand are often small and insignificant. Yet, the estimated effects of promotion on industry profit are often positive and large. This puzzle is explained by demonstrating that (in)significance of promotion in a demand equation does not imply, and is not implied by, (in)significance of promotion in an industry profit equation. A Monte Carlo example is provided. The econometric modeling implications are discussed. The short‐run marginal effect of a dollar of generic beef promotion on slaughter cattle industry profit is estimated to be about $9.84 with a standard error of 3.77 for 1997.