Downside versus Symmetric Measures of Uncertainty in Natural Resource Portfolio Design to Manage Climate Change Uncertainty
用下行风险度量替代方差，构建保护活动组合以更高效管理气候变化带来的不确定性，适用于对下行风险敏感且未来保护结果分布偏斜的场景。
Recent work uses Markowitz’s mean-variance framework to identify efficient allocations of conservation activity across subregions of a planning landscape to minimize climate change–induced uncertainty in future conservation benefits. We replace variance with a downside measure of uncertainty and compare the resulting portfolios of conservation activity and uncertainty–expected value results against those generated by the mean-variance approach. Results illustrate that conservation agents can manage climate changed–induced uncertainty in future conservation outcomes more efficiently using our framework when they are particularly averse to downside uncertainty and when predicted future conservation outcomes within subregions across their planning horizon exhibit skewed distributions. <i></i>