Exchange-Rate Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
研究严重衰退和通缩中名义利率为零时货币政策的有效性，比较汇率盯住和价格水平目标制两种方案，基于日本、美国和欧元区的实证模型及理论模型分析，发现两者在完全可信下效果相近，但价格水平目标制在可信度不足时效果较差。
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of monetary policy in a severe recession and deflation when nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. We compare two alternative proposals for ameliorating the effect of the zero bound: an exchange-rate peg and price-level targeting. We conduct this quantitative comparison in an empirical macroeconometric model of Japan, the United States and the euro area. Furthermore, we use a stylized micro-founded two-country model to check our qualitative findings. We find that both proposals succeed in generating inflationary expectations and work almost equally well under full credibility of monetary policy. However, price-level targeting may be less effective under imperfect credibility, because the announced price-level target path is not directly observable.