利用幻影选项进行决策结构化

Decision Structuring with Phantom Alternatives

Management Science · 1993
被引 87
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

探讨决策中的幻影选项(看似真实但实际不可用的选择),分析其如何帮助或阻碍决策,并提出在决策结构化中明确考虑幻影的指南,以识别不可用选项、利用信息、抵消偏差并避免次优决策。

Abstract

A phantom alternative is an illusory choice option—it looks real but for some reason is unavailable at the time a decision is made. Phantoms can both help and hinder successful decision making. On the one hand, phantoms can provide useful information on the boundaries of a decision problem and thus help generate new options through a restructuring of the problem. But phantoms can also produce biases, deception, and suboptimal decisions. We argue that phantoms should be considered explicitly in decision structuring rather than being allowed to work their effects surreptitiously. We offer guidelines on recognizing unavailable alternatives, utilizing the information provided by phantoms, counteracting phantom biases, avoiding deception in decision structuring, and guarding against suboptimal decisions.

幻影选项决策结构选项不可用性决策偏差