Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries
提出一种检验经济增长放缓显著性和时点的明确方法，分析74个国家后发现多数国家战后增长率存在显著结构断点，发达国家多在1970年代初放缓，而发展中国家（尤其拉美）放缓更严重且晚约十年。
This paper proposes an explicit test for determining the significance and the timing of slowdowns in economic growth. We examine a large sample of countries and find that a majority - though not all - exhibit a significant structural break in their postwar growth rates. We find that (a) most industrialized countries experienced postwar growth slowdowns in the early 1970s, though (b) the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom did not, and (c) developing countries (and in particular, Latin American countries) tended to experience much more severe slowdowns which, in contrast with the more developed countries, began nearly a decade later. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog