Short‐Term Horizons in Foreign Exchange? Survey Evidence from dealers and Fund Managers
通过问卷调查德国外汇市场专业人士，发现绝对预期视野虽短但并非短期主义，而相对视野指标显示普遍存在偏离最优行为的情况，且机构环境而非个人特征影响视野长短。
The paper examines the extent and determinants of short‐term horizons in taking open positions using a questionnaire mailed to professional foreign exchange market participants in Germany. The findings reveal that the absolute anticipation horizon is short, but not necessarily short‐termist. Another related but empirically different measure is proposed, based on the relative length of different horizons; its use clearly shows widespread restrictions in relation to optimal behavior. No determinants in personal characteristics were established for either empirical measure; rather the instituional environment was found to be an influence. Thus, professionals may adept rationally to their incentive structure, which works towards short‐term horizons in position taking.