The Stock Market Crash Really Did Cause the Great Recession
研究股市与失业率的关系，发现股市下跌格兰杰导致失业率上升，且2008年股市暴跌可解释大衰退的严重程度。
This paper studies the connection between the stock market and the unemployment rate. I establish three facts. First, the log of the real value of the S&P 500 and the log of a logistic transformation of the unemployment rate are non‐stationary cointegrated series. Second, the stock market Granger causes the unemployment rate. Third, the connection between changes in the real value of the stock market and changes in the unemployment rate has remained structurally stable over seventy years. My results establish that the fall in the stock market in the autumn of 2008 provides a plausible causal explanation for the magnitude of the Great Recession.