Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys
研究了家庭调查中主观概率的预测能力，发现其在个人有私人信息（如生存和退休）时预测力强，而在股票市场收益等无私人信息时差异大且低于历史均值，解释了低持股率。
Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities.