Revealed Preference of the Federal Reserve: Using Inverse-Control Theory to Interpret the Policy Equation of a Vector Autoregression
用逆控制方法检验美联储政策是否接近最优控制理论的政策，估计美联储对稳定产出、通胀、利率和货币增长的相对重视程度，发现不同时期政策具有最优性。
How close is observed Federal Reserve policy to policy that would be optimal in the control-theory sense? The question is addressed by using an inverse-control methodology. Federal Reserve policy is characterized by a feedback equation for either changes in the interest rate or money stock. Optimal policy is characterized by solution of the Ricatti equation. Parameters are estimated that characterize the relative importance to the Federal Reserve of stabilizing output, inflation, interest rates, and money growth. The period of study is 1947 through 1992. Evidence is uncovered that policy is optimal within distinct regimes.