A sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions after a health shock
利用西班牙横截面数据，估计并验证了老年工人在健康/残疾冲击后劳动力状态转换的三阶段序列模型，发现年龄和冲击严重性会降低就业概率，且年龄与严重性对老年工人有强交互作用。
In this paper we estimate and validate a three-period sequential model of older workers' labor force transitions following a health/disability shock, using retrospective information from Spanish cross-section data. Central to the analysis are the effects of the various disabilities and their severity. We find that the probability of remaining employed decreases both with age and the severity of the shock. Moreover, we find strong interactions between age and severity for older workers and none for prime-age workers. Suffering any kind of disability reduces the probability of being employed immediately prior to retirement age, and in such cases it is severity which is the strongest indicator. With respect to demographics, we find that female gender, having a retired spouse or being married all reduce the probabilities of both remaining in employment and returning to work following a spell of inactivity; in turn, principal breadwinner status, education and skill levels increase this likelihood.