Yield Effects of Tissue Culture Bananas in Kenya: Accounting for Selection Bias and the Role of Complementary Inputs
利用肯尼亚小农调查数据，采用内生转换回归方法分析组织培养香蕉技术的产量效应，发现存在负向选择偏差，控制偏差后净产量增益为7%，且该技术对灌溉更敏感。
Abstract We analyse yield effects of tissue culture (TC) banana technology in the Kenyan small farm sector, using recent survey data and an endogenous switching regression approach. TC banana plantlets, which are free from pests and diseases, have been introduced in East Africa since the late 1990s. Although field experiments show significant yield advantages over traditional banana suckers, a rigorous assessment of impacts in farmers’ fields is still outstanding. A comparison of mean yield levels between TC adopters and non‐adopters in our sample shows no significant difference. However, we find evidence of negative selection bias, indicating that farmers with lower than average yields are more likely to adopt TC. Controlling for this bias results in a positive and significant TC net yield gain of 7%. We also find that TC technology is more knowledge intensive and more responsive to irrigation than traditional bananas. Simulations show that improving access to irrigation could lift TC productivity gains to above 20%. The analytical approach developed and applied here and the finding of negative selection bias may also be relevant for the evaluation of other agricultural technologies.