An investigation of the harvest decision of timber firms in the south-east United States
通过新的估计和分析，试图解决先前随机Faustmann模型估计中未解释的谜团，发现使用正确价格预测的采伐决策价值远低于模拟研究所示，可能是便利收益的波动削弱了利用木材价格随机变化的预期收益。
In the forestry literature, stochastic extensions of the classic Faustmann model have become the predominant models of optimal harvesting on even-aged timber stands. A recent attempt to estimate a stochastic version of the Faustmann model left several puzzling results unexplained (Provencher, 1995). This paper reports on new estimation and analyses undertaken to resolve these puzzles. Of particular note is the result that the value of using correct price forecasts in the harvest decision is much lower than indicated by recent simulation studies, perhaps because variability in convenience yield dampens the expected gain from exploiting stochastic variation in timber prices.