Arbitrage and the Expectations Hypothesis
证明，在市场不完全的情况下，所有传统形式的预期假说都可以与无套利条件一致，因此预期假说的有效性纯属实证问题，不能先验地排除。
This paper shows that all traditional forms of the expectations hypothesis can be consistent with the absence of arbitrage if markets are incomplete. A key implication is that the validity of the expectations hypothesis is purely an empirical issue; the expectations hypothesis cannot be ruled out on a priori theoretical grounds.