Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor
利用实物期权理论解释农业劳动力短缺现象，通过华盛顿州月度工资数据估计套利模型，发现劳动力短缺概率远高于过剩概率。
Abstract Fruit and vegetable growers often allege a shortage of agricultural workers, but in a review of the H2A nonimmigrant guestworker program the General Accounting Office claims that no such shortage exists. The apparent shortage may be due to workers that are in the labor force but do not choose to take agricultural jobs. According to real options theory, when nonagricultural jobs are uncertain, workers require added incentive to invest in sectoral migration. Estimates of an arbitrage model in monthly Washington state wage data show the labor‐shortage probability to be far greater than the probability of a surplus.