The behavioural economics of climate change
将行为经济学核心见解引入气候变化经济学,探讨前景理论、时间不一致偏好对折现率选择的影响,以及社会偏好对气候谈判结果的作用,认为应选择低于平均投资回报的社会折现率,并考虑社会偏好以促进国际协议。
This paper attempts to bring some central insights from behavioural economics into the economics of climate change. In particular, it discusses (i) implications of prospect theory, the equity premium puzzle, and time-inconsistent preferences in the choice of discount rate used in climate-change cost assessments, and (ii) the implications of various kinds of social preferences for the outcome of climate negotiations. Several reasons are presented for why it appears advisable to choose a substantially lower social discount rate than the average return on investments. It also seems likely that taking social preferences into account increases the possibilities of obtaining international agreements, compared to the standard model. However, there are also effects going in the opposite direction, and the importance of sanctions is emphasized.