Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection
通过实验室实验，发现人们在时间序列预测中系统性地偏离理性：在稳定环境中过度反应，在不稳定环境中反应不足，且稳定环境下的绩效损失更大。
We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to errors in relatively unstable environments. The performance loss that is due to such systematic judgment biases is larger in stable than in unstable environments. This paper was accepted by Martin Lariviere, operations management.