Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?
检验了常用统计检验在评估投机市场效率时的效力，发现这些检验效力很低，市场估值可能长期偏离现金流的理性预期而不留下统计痕迹，暗示投机难以保证理性估值。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the power of statistical tests commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of speculative markets. It shows that these tests have very low power. Market valuations can differ substantially and persistently from the rational expectation of the present value of cash flows without leaving statistically discernible traces in the pattern of ex‐post returns. This observation implies that speculation is unlikely to ensure rational valuations, since similar problems of identification plague both financial economists and would be speculators.