Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?*
利用1978至1999年间268次民主选举数据，比较世界经济增长（运气）和本国相对增长（能力）对选民投票的影响，发现运气的影响大于能力，且能力在富裕和教育程度高的国家更受奖励。
Abstract Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? Using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, I compare the effect of world growth (luck) and national growth relative to world growth (competence). Both matter, but the effect of luck is larger than the effect of competence. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated; and there is some suggestive evidence that media penetration rates affect the returns to luck and competence.