Credibility and Disinflation in the European Monetary System
分析欧洲货币体系汇率机制的可信度，发现多数国家预期的贬值率显著且接近与德国马克的通胀差，并检验价格设定是否受汇率纪律影响。
Analysis of interest differentials in the European Monetary System has suggested a widespread lack of credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the sense that in most countries the implicit expected rate of devaluation was significant and not far short of inflation differentials vis‐à‐vis the deutschmark. We present and test a model in which prices reflect expectations of exchange rate behaviour. The results provide mixed evidence that price‐setting in countries which participated in the ERM was influenced by the exchange rate discipline.