Learning from Teen Childbearing Experiences of Close Friends: Evidence using Miscarriages as a Natural Experiment
利用流产作为自然实验，研究密友的青少年生育经历如何影响自身生育决策，发现密友生育使自身青少年怀孕概率降低6个百分点，机制是改变了对早育的信念。
We examine peer effects in teen childbearing among close friends, using miscarriages as a natural experiment. We use 775 women from the core sample of Add Health who had a friend with a teen pregnancy. We find a sizable negative treatment effect: a close friend’s teen birth is associated with a 6 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of own teen pregnancy and childbearing. There is evidence that this effect operates through a learning mechanism by changing beliefs regarding early childbearing. Effects of teen pregnancy prevention policies may be partially offset by reductions in the opportunities for social learning. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology