The Democratic Transition
利用1870-2000年历史数据，发现小学教育（以及较弱的人均收入）是政治制度质量的关键决定因素，但民主对收入或教育的影响不显著。
Over the last two centuries, many countries experienced regime transitions toward democracy. We document this democratic transition over a long time horizon. We use historical time series of income, education and democracy levels from 1870 to 2000 to explore the economic factors associated with rising levels of democracy. We find that primary schooling, and to a weaker extent per capita income levels, are strong determinants of the quality of political institutions. We find little evidence of causality running the other way, from democracy to income or education.