Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals
研究了瑞典、英国、加拿大、瑞士和日本五国央行通胀预测是否影响私人预测，发现存在正向影响，且这种影响并非源于预测准确性。
Focusing on a set of central banks that publish inflation forecasts in real time, this paper aims to establish whether central bank inflation forecasts influence private inflation forecasts. The response is positive in the five countries studied: Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Japan. Three hypotheses may explain this central bank influence: central bank forecasts are more accurate than private ones, are based on different information sets, and/or convey signals about future policy decisions and policymakers’ preferences and objectives. We provide evidence that the source of these central banks’ influence is not linked to their forecasting performance.